ITALY ECONOMY MINSTER PADOAN, ASKED ABOUT GREECE EURO EXIT, SAYS EU SYSTEM MUCH STRONGER THAN BEFORE
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FINNISH FIN MIN STUBB SAYS DONT THINK CONTAMINATION ISSUE IS AS REAL AS IT WAS A FEW YEARS AGO
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HUNGARY CENTRAL BANK SAYS READY TO OFFER EUR 1.1 BLN TO COMMERCIAL BANKS FROM ITS RESERVES TO HELP CONVERT REMAINING FX CAR, CONSUMER AND OTHER LOANS
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FINNISH FIN MIN STUBB SAYS THERE ARE A FEW FINANCE MINISTERS WHOSE PATIENCE IS RUNNING OUT WITH GREECE
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FINNISH FIN MIN STUBB SAYS IN LAST FEW YEARS WE HAVE DONE EVERYTHING IN OUR POWER TO KEEP GREECE IN EURO ZONE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO THAT BUT IT IS A TWO-WAY STREET
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Gold prices nudged higher as weaker dollar boosted most commodities Tuesday morning.
The precious metal also enjoyed some safe haven demand amid mounting concerns about the outlook for the global economy.
Gains were modest, however, as traders think the Federal Reserve may be compelled to raise interest rates in September if the U.S. jobs picture continues to brighten.
Gold for August was up $8 at $1,181.10 an ounce.
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its wholesale inventories report for April at 10 am ET. Economists expect wholesale inventories to have risen by 0.3 percent.
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GERMAN FIN MIN SCHAEUBLE SAYS AFTER TALKS WITH GREECE’S VAROUFAKIS ON MONDAY WE STILL HAVE DIFFERING VIEWS
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Romania’s foreign trade deficit widened in April from a year ago, figures from the National Institute of Statistics showed Tuesday.
The trade deficit rose to EUR 644.2 million in April from EUR 643.7 million in the same month of the previous year. In March, the shortfall was revised down to EUR 808.1 million from EUR 812.8 million.
Exports rose 5.5 percent annually, after 7.2 percent growth in the previous month. Imports grew 4.7 percent following an 11.5 percent surge in March.
However, shipments fell 8.4 percent month-on-month in April and imports dropped by 10.1 percent.
In the January to April period, total trade deficit of the country widened notably to EUR 2.02 billion from EUR 1.76 billion in the corresponding period last year. Exports and imports grew 5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.
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It is good to sell on rallies around 140 with SL around 141 for the TP of 138.
Resistance
R1- 141
R2- 142.28
R3- 143
Support
S1-139.50
S2-139
S3-138
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Crude oil prices snapped back Tuesday morning, taking back most of their losses from the previous few sessions.
A weaker dollar gave a number of commodities a lift in early dealing.
U.S. crude oil for July was up $1.33 at $59.41 a barrel.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its monthly short-term energy outlook later today, with OPEC and the International Energy Agency to follow with their reports later in the week.
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its wholesale inventories report for April at 10 am ET. Economists expect wholesale inventories to have risen by 0.3 percent.
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Reversing direction, the New Zealand dollar strengthened against the other major currencies in European deals on Tuesday.
The kiwi climbed to a 6-day high of 0.7177 against the greenback and a 1-week high of 1.0742 versus the aussie, off early lows of 0.7086 and 1.0820, respectively.
The kiwi reversed from an early near 6-month low of 1.5936 against the euro and edged up to 1.5717.
The kiwi, having fallen to an 8-day low of 88.27 versus the yen in early deals, reversed direction with pair trading at 88.94.
The next possible resistance for the kiwi is seen around 0.725 against the greenback, 89.00 against the yen, 1.55 against the euro and 1.05 against the aussie.
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NZ Dollar Advances To 4-day High Of 1.5717 Against Euro
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SLOVAK C.BANK KEEPS 2015 GROWTH OUTLOOK AT 3.2 PCT, 2016 AT 3.8 PCT – QUARTERLY FORECAST
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SLOVAK C.BANK SEES 2015 INFLATION AT -0.1 PCT (PVS FCAST -0.3 PCT), 1.6 PCT IN 2016 (PVS 1.7 PCT) – QUARTERLY FORECAST
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SLOVAK CENTRAL BANK CHIEF MAKUCH SAYS INFLATION TO REMAIN NEGATIVE IN COMING MONTHS, POSITIVE FROM NOVEMBER
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ECB’S MAKUCH SAYS QE IMPACT CAN BE SEEN IN HIGHER INFLATION, INDIRECTLY IN GDP AND EURO/DOLLAR RATE
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NZ Dollar Climbs To 1-week High Of 1.0742 Versus Australian Dollar
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NZ Dollar Extends Rise To 5-day High Of 0.7160 Against U.S. Dollar
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Friday’s jobs report might have given FED hawks some ammunition to fight off the doves and consider rate hike as early as September this year.
Why FED is considering a rate hike with low inflation?
FED officials would like to hike at the earliest so that there could be considerable time gap remains between the two cuts and rate hike impact on the economic activities can be measured and studied.
FED is to announce monetary policy in June 17th. As of now September remains likely date for first rate hike, though June can’t be completely ruled out.
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Iceland’s economic growth slowed marginally in the first quarter, after improving in the previous quarter, preliminary figures from Statistics Iceland showed Tuesday.
Gross domestic product grew 2.9 percent year-over-year in the three months ended March, following a 3.0 percent expansion in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, the growth rate was 1.7 percent. It was the fourth consecutive quarterly increase.
In the first quarter, total domestic expenditure climbed by 9.9 percent from the previous year. House hold final consumption rose 3.9 percent and government final consumption increased by 1.5 percent.
The gross fixed capital formation surged 23.5 percent, boosted by a 35.9 percent gain in business sector investment.
Exports rose 2.7 percent, but considerably lower than a 17.4 percent growth registered by imports.
On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent in the March quarter, after a 0.2 percent growth seen in the December quarter.
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The Japanese yen extended advance against its major rivals in European deals on Tuesday, as concerns over higher interest rates in the U.S. and deadlock in Greek debt talks, as well as downbeat Chinese inflation data spurred demand for safe-haven assets.
Speaking after the G7 summit in Germany, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned Greece that time is running out for a reform-for-aid deal to keep the country in the euro zone. «There isn’t much time left» and «every day counts» to complete the necessary work, she added.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that China’s consumer price inflation rose 1.2 percent year-over-year in May, slightly below expectations for a 1.3 percent gain and down from 1.5 percent in April, raising concerns about growing deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. Producer prices slid 4.6 percent to mark the 39th consecutive month of declines.
Investors are mulling the prospectus of a Fed rate hike as early as September, after Friday’s upbeat U.S. jobs data. Reports on consumer sentiment and retail sales are due this week, ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on June 16-17.
European markets are trading in red, tracking weak Asian cues, making the safe-have yen more attractive.
In economic news, survey results from the Cabinet Office showed that Japanese consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly in May.
The consumer confidence index dropped to a seasonally adjusted 41.4 in May from 41.5 in April. It was forecast to rise to 41.9.
The yen was higher in the Asian session.
In European trading now, the yen advanced to a 4-day high of 99.98 against the loonie, 8-day high of 88.27 against the kiwi, 1-week highs of 189.52 against the pound and 95.17 against the aussie, off early lows of 100.49, 88.99 and 191.25 and a 4-day low of 96.08, respectively. If the yen extends rise, it may challenge resistance around 98.4 against the loonie, 87.5 against the kiwi, 185.00 against the pound and 94.00 against the aussie.
The yen edged up to 139.52 against the euro and 133.43 against the franc, reversing from early 5-day low of 141.01 and a 4-1/2-month low of 134.48, respectively. The yen is seen finding resistance around 137.5 against the euro and 132.00 against the franc.
Looking ahead, U.S. small business index for May and wholesale inventories for April are set to be announced in the New York session.
At 8:30 am ET, European Central Bank board member Sabine Lautenschlager will deliver a speech to Dutch Finance Committee at the Hague, Holland.
Subsequently, ECB Supervisory Council’s President Daniele Nouy is expected to speak at a conference in Berlin, Germany at 10:00 am ET.
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Key Events Ahead
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1300 levels and currently trading at 1.1260 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1344 and low at 1.1247 levels. U.S. two-year Treasury yields having fallen back towards pre-jobs data levels, indications are the rates markets were having a hard time factoring in a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. As a result, the spread over German two-year Bund yields narrowed, all of which kept the dollar under pressure and helped the euro. Meanwhile, the pair ignored in line with estimates Euro zone Q1 GDP print as markets now focus on US JOLTS openings data for further momentum. Initial support is seen at 1.1257 and resistance is seen around 1.1380 levels. Option expiries are at 1.1250 (454M), 1.1280-85 (520M), 1.1300 (217M), 1.1325 (436M), 1.1350 (777M).USD/JPY is supported around 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.72 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.91 and currently trading at 123.96 levels. The pair witnessed a sudden sell-off sparked by renewed weakness in the greenback across the board. The US dollar index, measuring the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies turned in red at 95.19, retreating from fresh session highs at 95.47. Moreover, the major remains pressured as the yen supported on Japan’s Prime Minister Abe’s optimistic comments overnight that weaker yen was leading to more visitors to Japan and supporting companies doing business overseas. Near term resistance is seen at 124.74 and support is seen at 123.85 levels. Option expiries are at 124.00 (972M), 125.25 (530M).GBP/USD is supported around $1.5300 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5372 and low at 1.5271 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5301 levels. Sterling slipped to a one-month low against the euro on Tuesday, extending a two-week losing streak despite data showing Britain’s trade deficit narrowed to its lowest in over a year in .895 pence. Initial support is seen at 1.5189 and resistance is seen around 1.5368 levels. Option expiries are at 1.5225 (360M), 1.5350 (390M).USD/CHF is supported below 0.9300 levels and trading at 0.9280 levels and made intraday low at 0.9245 and high at 0.9296 levels. Today Switzerland released Unemployment rate with flat numbers and CPI data with positive numbers. Near term support is seen at 0.9242 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9372 levels.AUD/USD is supported above 0.7650 levels and trading at 0.7682 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7721 levels and low at 0.7645 levels. The Aussie keeps red as traders ignored Aus improved business conditions reading as China softer price pressures print weighed heavily on markets. Chinese inflation ticked down to 1.2% y/y in May, coming in slightly weaker than the forecast pace of 1.3%, and easing from April’s 1.5% rise. While, the Aussie shrugged off upbeat business confidence data from Australia which revealed that the NAB Business Confidence Index jolted up to 7 in May from 3 in April, while the NAB Business Conditions Index rose to 7 from 4. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7739 levels.
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CZECH C.BANK SAYS MAY CPI ABOVE ITS FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO Y/Y GROWTH IN PRICES OF FOOD, DRINKS AND TOBACCO
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CZECH C.BANK SAYS INFLATION DEVELOPMENT IN Q2 SO FAR EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS
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ORDERS FOR GERMANY’S 30-YEAR INFLATION-LINKED BOND EXCEED €5BN – LEAD
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BRAZIL MAY IGP-DI INFLATION INDEX* DECREASE TO 0.4 % (FCAST 0.40 %) VS PREV 0.92 %
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GERMANY REVISES GUIDANCE ON 30-YEAR INFLATION-LINKED EURO BOND TO BREAKEVEN LEVEL OF 152BP AREA – LEAD
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We all know complete hedging comes with the cost in its entirety. But dont you think the advantages of the hedging more priceless than its optimal cost? Or is hedging treasury securities a risky venture?Such type of idiosyncratic thoughts strike our minds in current scenario as fixed income instruments in one nation fetches handsome gains and puzzles around in another.We may get smudge views while answering this question where treasury yields have been declining downward constantly from past 30 years.But look here in today’s environment of extremely low volatility and extremely low rates, the added-value looks more obvious.The graphs above evidence the overall performance in the gains on the basis points equivalent of an outright long position in 10y US treasuries and the combination of this long position in 10y US Treasuries and one of the three systematic strategies below,
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Biggest question circulating in the oil market is how Iran’s presence might impact the market.
Iranian production data, as shown in chart is confirming what Iran’s oil minister said.
Market will now focus on the nuclear negotiations, which is scheduled to be finalized by end of June.
Brent is currently trading at $64/barrel at $5/barrel premium to WTI.
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It is good to buy at dips around 0.9275 with SL around 0.9245 for the TP of 0.9380.
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Cyprus’ EU measure of inflation declined at a stable pace in May, figures from the Statistical Service showed Tuesday.
The harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, fell 1.7 percent year-over-year in May, the same rate as in the previous month. Prices have been falling since December last year.
Utility costs plunged 9.0 percent annually in May and transport costs dipped by 4.7 percent. At the same time, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages remained unchanged.
In the January to May period, the HICP decreased 1.3 percent versus a 1.2 percent fall during the first four months of the year.
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It is good to sell on rallies around 140 with SL around 141 for the TP of 138.
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The weekly echnical analysis of GBP/USD pair:
Trading recommendations:
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Latvia’s foreign trade deficit decreased in April from a year ago, as exports rose and imports fell, figures from the Central Statistical Bureau showed Tuesday.
The trade deficit fell to EUR 158.4 million in April from EUR 232.1 million in the same month of the prior year. In March, the shortfall was EUR 192.5 million.
Exports surged 7.0 percent annually in April, while imports dropped by 1.4 percent. Month-on-month, both exports and imports climbed by 4.5 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
The country’s main export partners during April were Lithuania, Estonia, Germany and the United Kingdom. Imports largely came from Lithuania, Poland, Germany and Estonia.
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EU COMMISSION SAYS: WILL REVIEW WITH DILIGENCE AND CARE NEW SUGGESTIONS
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EU COMMISSION SAYS: RECEIVED NEW GREEK SUGGESTIONS
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We’ve already flagged the fall through export sector and how this will bolster efforts by Asian policymakers to encourage currency weakness through various channels including direct intervention, rate cuts, or more direct regulatory measures.Currency Derivatives Roundups:We shift EM Asia FX trades to neutral approach and add to slightly long USD/Asia baskets in our leveraged portfolio through SGD (outright), THB (3m forward), and TWD (USD call spreads).Option Strategy:Considering fundamental developments, we recommend buy a 5-month USD/TWD 30.8-31.4 call spread.Long At-The-Money Call (strike at 31.14) and Short Out-Of-The-Money Call (with higher Strike at 31.20) with the same expiration date for a net premium payable.This is worth using over a long call as the costs of the long ATM calls are too expensive and the USD is projected to move somewhat higher.Credit from short call OTM call reduces the cost of long call.
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The Fed cycle could prove particularly stressful for Asian EM this time around if US rates were to rise whilst Asian export growth were contracting as a consequence of the slowdown in China.Asian currencies risk has been falling into the gap between the US and Chinese business cycles.With advanced core rates emphasizing EM vulnerabilities, we have been recommending bearish EM FX trades.Currency updates:Asia will also enter the Fed liftoff period with pricing and ownership back near pre-taper-tantrum levels.Half of EM Asia FX is now stronger than pre-taper in NEER terms (CNY, KRW, TWD, PHP, SGD) with only IDR more than 10% weaker.Meanwhile, foreign ownership ratios in bond markets are almost as high (MYR, THB) if not higher (IDR) than pre-taper. Foreign equity ownership has also substantially grown in INR, TWD and KRW.Why Asian currency baskets have been vulnerable?
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PORTUGAL FEB-APRIL TRADE BALANCE -2.343 BLN EUROS-INE
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DANSKE BANK: LONG USDJPY, ENTRY 124.05, STOP LOSS 123.40, TARGET 125.86
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Latvia Apr Imports Down 1.4% On Year
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Latvia Apr Trade Deficit EUR 158.4 Mln Vs. EUR 192.5 Mln In March
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Denmark’s trade surplus increased in April as exports fell at a slower rate than imports, a report from Statistics Denmark showed Tuesday.
The seasonally adjusted trade surplus, excluding ships and airplanes, rose to DKK 9.3 billion from DKK 8.9 billion in March.
Exports, excluding ships and airplanes, fell 5.6 percent in April, reversing the 8.4 percent increase in March. The declines in shipments of raw materials, food, beverages, tobacco, chemical and chemical products, manufactured goods, and finished goods, offset the growth in transportation and fuel and lubricants.
Dispatches to countries outside the European Union fell by 12.6 percent and exports to EU countries dropped by 0.5 percent. Exports to the U.S. dropped 29.4 percent and those to China declined by 9.3 percent. However, exports to the Netherlands jumped by 48.5 percent and that to Germany grew 11.5 percent.
Imports, excluding ships and airplanes, decreased 7.3 percent, following the 5.2 percent rise in March. Declines were recorded in all product groups.
Arrivals from countries outside the EU fell by 11.5 percent and imports from the EU declined by 5.5 percent. Imports from the US decreased 7.7 percent and that from China dropped by 43.1 percent. However, imports from Norway grew 10.2 percent.
A separate report from Statistics Denmark showed that the country’s seasonally adjusted current account surplus declined to DKK 6.1 billion in April from DKK 13.6 billion in the previous month.
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Latvia Apr Exports Up 7.0% On Year
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UNITED STATES MAY NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM IDX INCREASE TO 98.3 VS PREV 96.90
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EUROPE’S FTSEUROFIRST 300 NOW DOWN 1.3 PCT, HITS 3-1/2 MONTH LOW
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FOREX WATCHERS: LONG EURUSD ABOVE 1.1251
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DANSKE BANK:LONG EURUSD, ENTRY 1.1235, STOP LOSS 1.1150, TARGET 1.1380
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Lithuania’s producer prices continued to decline at a slower pace in May, figures from Statistics Lithuania showed Tuesday.
The producer price index fell 6.6 percent year-over-year in May, following a 7.7 percent decline in the previous month. The pace of decline has been slowing since February.
Producer prices, excluding refined petroleum products decreased 2.6 percent in May from the prior year.
Prices in the manufacturing sector slid 5.5 percent annually in May and mining and quarrying prices went down by 3.6 percent. Meanwhile, utility sector prices jumped 16.0 percent.
Month-on-month, producer prices rose 0.4 percent in May, slower than a 0.8 percent climb in April. It was the fourth month of increase in a row.
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GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS SUBMITTED TWO DOCUMENTS TO EU COMMISIONER MOSCOVICI AIMING TO REACH COMPROMISE ON FISCAL ISSUES AND DEBT
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